Doug Davidson writes:
I just wanted to draw your attention to this paper [Aerosol and surface stability of HCoV-19 (SARS-CoV-2) compared to SARS-CoV-1, by Neeltje van Doremalen et al.] that used Stan.
They are concerned with how long the virus remains viable on different surfaces, including packaging material. I think this will become more important as time goes on, as people rely (even) more on delivery than they do now.
I guess one question is whether these estimates are credible. If they are, delivery services (Amazon, UPS, etc.) could change policy so that packages are routinely quarantined for a period corresponding to the upper bound of the estimates. I don’t know enough about decision theory, or all of the factors involved to even pose this question in cost-benefit terms, but maybe some of your commenters do!
The above-linked article states that “the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for multiple hours and on surfaces up to days.”
I’ve not tried to evaluate this work but I’m sharing it here. There are two questions here: first, the relevance of these data to real-world disease transmission; second, the propagation of these estimates from virus counts to exposure probabilities to effects on the transmission network, to get a sense of the potential benefits of quarantining packages. Or maybe they could just wipe everything down? I dunno.