Election 2020 is coming: Our poll aggregation model with Elliott Morris of the Economist

Here it is. The model is vaguely based on our past work on Bayesian combination of state polls and election forecasts but with some new twists.

And, check it out: you can download our R and Stan source code and the data! Merlin Heidemanns wrote much of the code, which in turn is based on Pierre Kremp’s model from 2016.

We use multilevel modeling to partially pool information from economic and political “fundamentals,” state polls, and national polls.

Here’s an Economist article giving more background on our approach.