“Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe”

Seth Flaxman writes:

Our work on non-pharmaceutical interventions in 11 European countries (originally Imperial report 13) is now published in Nature, Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe.

Of note for your readers:

1) Nature has an open peer review process, so you can see the (pre-publication) peer review here.

2) Between submission on 30 March and publication we updated our model a few times and of course regularly refit it as new data became available. In order to understand what impact new data had, we retrospectively refit the final model to each new day of data, and created these animations to show how the posterior contracts.

3) Stan source code for this and subsequent reports is all available—thanks to the community for improvements and speedups!

Subsequent reports and a paper:

USA: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-23-united-states/ and website: https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19usa/ and open review: https://openreview.net/forum?id=NuBVOoSnlTh

Brazil: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-21-brazil/

Italy: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-20-italy/

“Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity?” in the Lancet: https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31357-X.pdf

4) Stay tuned for an R package for our model, based on RStanArm. If you’re interested in helping beta test it, please get in touch.

We discussed some version of this model last month.