Aaron “Edlin factor” Edlin writes:
What is the Gelman confidence interval for mortality rate from corona?
My reply: I got nothin.
Would it be interesting to survey epidemiologists and generalists on their point estimates for the mortality rate for corona?
Will the average guess be close to reality? Like with guessing jelly beans in a jar. Or will it be far off. How will guesses vary by location I wonder? Probably a silly idea. What could be learned as the real n is 1?
Would you guess that experts or generalists would do better?
My only suggestion is to estimate the mortality rate as a function of demographic predictors and then do some sort of poststratification if you want an overall estimate. That’s gonna make more sense than trying to come up with a single ratio and then arguing endlessly about what’s the right denominator.