“Statistical Models of Election Outcomes”: My talk this evening at the University of Michigan

At the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research this evening:

Statistical Models of Election Outcomes

We will discuss various political and statistical aspects of election forecasts:
– How accurately can elections be forecast?
– What information is useful in forecasting elections?
– What sorts of elections are less predictable?
– To the extent that elections are predictable, what does this tell us about the effectiveness of campaigning?
– What are the effects of X on election, where X is ballot-order effects, Fox News, home-state advantage, or other things?
– How do we account for systematic errors in polling?
– What happened in 2016?
– How does our forecasting model for The Economist work?