When I was asked, Who do you think is most likely to win the Democratic nomination?, this is how I responded . . .

A reporter emailed me:

Question on deadline: As of now, who do you think is most likely to win the Democratic nomination: Sanders, Buttigieg or one of the others?

I responded: My response is that primaries are hard to predict.

Just to be clear: I’m not denying the possibility of useful predictive modeling, I’m just saying it’s not easy, and I haven’t done the work, either to do the prediction myself or to evaluate any predictions I’ve seen, hence my noncommittal response.