StanCon 2020 program is now online!

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/08/03/stancon-2020-program-is-now-online/This year’s Stan Conference is on August 13, 2020 (next Thursday)! The program has been finalized and is online. So far, we’re at 89 registrants

Math error in herd immunity calculation from CNN epidemiology expert

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/08/03/math-error-in-herd-immunity-calculation-from-cnn-epidemiology-expert/Michael Weissman and Sander Greenland write: Sanjay Gupta and Andrea Kane just ran an extensive front-page CNN article reporting that some residual T-cell immune responses

Getting negative about the critical positivity ratio: when you talk about throwing out the bathwater, really throw out the bathwater! Don’t try to pretend it has some value. Give it up. Let it go. You can do this and still hold on to the baby at the same time!

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/08/03/kinda-like-reeses-pieces-if-you-dont-like-chocolate-and-you-dont-like-peanut-butter/ But maybe it’s all OK? Most of this post is a pretty negative review of a recent book, about which I will apply the

RStudio Adds New R Features in Qubole’s Open Data Lake

https://blog.rstudio.com/2020/08/03/rstudio-adds-new-r-features-in-qubole-s-open-data-lake/ Launch RStudio Server Pro from inside the Qubole platform We are excited to team up with Qubole to offer data science teams the ability

The typical set and its relevance to Bayesian computation

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/08/02/the-typical-set-and-its-relevance-to-bayesian-computation/tl;dr The typical set (at some level of coverage) is the set of parameter values for which the log density (the target function) is close

“RA Fisher and the science of hatred”

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/08/01/ra-fisher-and-the-science-of-hatred/ Mark Brown points us to this thoughtful article by Richard Evans regarding the controversy over Ronald Fisher, who during the twentieth century made huge

On deck through Jan 2021

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/08/01/on-deck-through-jan-2021/This should keep you busy through the end of the year . . . Many of these posts were originally scheduled earlier but then got

Thinking about election forecast uncertainty

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/07/31/thinking-about-election-forecast-uncertainty/Some twitter action Elliott Morris, my collaborator (with Merlin Heidemanns) on the Economist election forecast, pointed me to some thoughtful criticisms of our model from

The history of low-hanging intellectual fruit

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/07/30/the-history-of-low-hanging-intellectual-fruit/Alex Tabarrok asks, why was the game Dungeons and Dragons, or something like it, not invented in ancient Rome? He argues that the ancient Romans